Mike’s Morning Brief – February 22, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened flattish after yesterday saw the 10th record close since the inauguration. S&P 500 hit $20 Trillion in Market Cap for the first time in history.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened flattish after yesterday saw the 10th record close since the inauguration.  S&P 500 hit $20 Trillion in Market Cap for the first time in history.  It is now up 10% since the election.  The rally has hit a stage where it feels overbought.  Bears and skeptics appear to have thrown in the towel fighting this tape.  It feels like it’s ahead of itself and another breather or selloff is warranted.  Corporate earnings and economic growth, both here and abroad, have accelerated.  The Market has gone a long way to price it in.  We see more signs of leadership rotation, but in general we are banking some gains and building up cash to buy weakness.  Financials have gone straight up and need to correct the moves a bit.  Conversely, Energy is an area that looks set for another run.  WTI has gone sideways for months in the low $50’s, consolidating the 100% gain from the 2016 lows.  A move towards $60 is very doable.  Russia overtook the Saudi’s as the largest oil producer.  Interest rates are ticking down ahead of the Fed Minute release this morning.  The Market is looking for clues as to how many rate hikes are ahead.  The Dollar is staying firm.  So is Gold.

Have a great day.

Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – February 15, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened flattish after another strong session took the major indices to fresh, all-time highs.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened flattish after another strong session took the major indices to fresh, all-time highs.  In fact, the S&P is going for 7 consecutive gainers, something it has not done in 3 1/2 years.  And the thing is, it is coming in the face of confusion and skepticism surrounding the White House.  This move is completely counterintuitive to the masses, and our clients are appreciative but quite concerned.  I hear it every day.  Global Markets were higher overnight in the wake of yesterday’s rally.  Interest rates are jumping, with the 10-Year Treasury yield over 2.5% again off Yellen’s first day of testimony on Capitol Hill.  She indicated another rate hike could be coming sooner than thought if economic expansion continues at current rate.  The Dollar had its best day of the year, riding an 11-day win streak.  Retail executives are visiting the White House to speak out about the negatives a proposed border tax.  President Trump will also meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today.  Crude prices continue to trade sideways in the low $50’s.  It’s actually pretty impressive considering it doubled from the 2016 lows.

Have a great day,

Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief | February 8, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the red a day after the DOW, S&P and NAS hit new intra-day highs, but failed to hold them.  Oil continues to slide to $51 on large production numbers.  Brexit could be official as early as today. Earnings keep coming with mixed tones.  Disney missed and Gilead beat, but lowered its outlook.  India kept rates unchanged again, which was a bit of a surprise.  The ruling on the travel ban freeze should come from a San Francisco court at any time.  We have a new Secretary of Education, but she is not widely popular.  Interest rates are lower as is the Dollar, while Gold catches an early bid.

Have a great Day.

Mike

 

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – January 25, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike's Morning Brief - January 25, 2017

Market opened sharply higher with the DOW finally taking out that big round 20K level for the first time ever.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened sharply higher with the DOW finally taking out that big round 20K level for the first time ever.  Wall Street loves stuff like this.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs yesterday and are building on them again this morning.  The rally carried overseas as Global Markets were higher overnight.  President Trump continues to move forward on promises.  Yesterday he gave executive orders to move forward on the Keystone pipeline and begin the process of building the wall along the Mexican border.  Earnings continue to pour in with a fairly positive tone.  The Dollar is weaker while interest rates are higher.  WTI is down slightly.  Today will be all about DOW 20K no doubt.  

Have a great day.
Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – Inauguration Day in the United States

Mike's Morning Brief

Mike’s morning brief

Mike's Morning Brief

Market opened sharply in the green on this historic day. The 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will take the oath of office and assume the responsibility as leader of this great but sorely divided nation.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened sharply in the green on this historic day.  The 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will take the oath of office and assume the responsibility as leader of this great but sorely divided nation.  The transition of leadership will culminate around noon on the Capitol steps; 9a our time. It’s also the end of the Obama administration. It’s a moment in history. Trump asked 50 of Obama’s staff members to stay on for continuity.  The next 4 years are expected to be quite different than the last 4 years.  Our future lies ahead.  What it will bring is full of unknowns.  There are serious issues our nation faces, both at home and abroad.  Policy change is indeed in the air.  There’s a new world order.  Power is shifting around the globe.  Certain Post-War norms are reversing.  The 21st century is a different place. Change is hard.  Change keeps coming.  We need to prepare and respond, or risk being left behind.  That’s the way of the world.

Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – January 18, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mikes morning brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on

Mike’s Morning Brief – January 18, 2017

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened mixed as the transition at the White House is upon us.  Inauguration day is just 48 hours away.  Trump has been a political wild card the whole time, and it is really have a significant influence both here and abroad.  Global leaders in Davos are trying to figure out how to think about him and brace for 4 years of the Trump Presidency.  The President-elect sent the Dollar lower yesterday after saying it was too strong.  It hit the lows on the year.  The Dollar is catching a bid this am.  The British Pound jumped 3%, the biggest one-day climb since 1998, following PM Theresa May’s Brexit speech. She pledged to walk away from negotiations if Britain didn’t get a good deal from Brussels.  The World Order has changed so much, so quickly.  Globalization is under assault.  Nationalism is on the rise.  Joe Biden spoke out about it in Switzerland.  That’s a major theme for 2017.  Oil is lower in early trading.  Global Markets were mixed overnight, with a positive bias.  Stocks have gone sideways for 6 weeks, near all-time highs.  Janet Yellen is in SF today, giving a speech at the Commonwealth Club.

Have a great day.

Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – January 11, 2017

Mike's Morning Brief

Mikes morning brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the green, with the incoming Administration in full focus. The President-elect will hold his first formal press conference for the first time since he won the election.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the green, with the incoming Administration in full focus.  The President-elect will hold his first formal press conference for the first time since he won the election.  There has been so much circling around Trump, the election, Russian hacking, constant tweets; it will be very interesting to see what he has to say today.  The world will certainly be watching.  It’s Day 2 of the Trump Cabinet confirmation hearings.  Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson takes center stage.

The World Bank sees the Global Economy strengthening, another good sign that the Market likes and has been pricing in with the rally.  The NAS is going for its 7th consecutive gain today, something it has not done since last May.  Tech and Biotech have taken the lead in the new year, after noticeably underperforming in the Trump rally to end last year. It’s a really good sign for broadening leadership.

Have a great day.
Mike

Mike’s Morning Brief – January 4, 2016

Mike's Morning Brief

Mikes morning brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the green again, after wide swings yesterday brought a volatile, yet positive start to 2017.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the green again, after wide swings yesterday brought a volatile, yet positive start to 2017.  It was much nicer than a year ago, when stocks plummeted to start out 2016.  In fact, this was the first positive start to a year in 3 years.

The price of oil dictated things, both up and down, as the prized commodity opened big but had an outside reversal which saw a close near the lows at $52.  It’s higher this morning in early trading.  Health Care, particularly Biotech, was strong yesterday.

Interest rates are also ticking higher ahead of the Fed Minutes release later today.  At its last meeting, in which it raised rates for just the second time since the Financial Crisis, the Janet Yellen led Fed guided to 3 rate hikes this year.  The Market has gone a long way towards pricing it in.  Importantly, rates are finally rising for the right reason.  It’s healthy.  Growth is returning to the US.  It’s also showing up overseas.  European Consumer prices hit highs not seen in nearly 4 years.  Japanese factory orders accelerated too.

Have a  great day,

Mike

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – December 28, 2016

Mike's Morning Brief

Mikes morning brief

Mike’s Morning Brief: Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

“Market opened higher, looking like it’s finally going to hit that big round psychological milestone of 20K. It has just 3 days to do so in 2016.”

Mike’s Morning Brief: Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened higher, looking like it’s finally going to hit that big round psychological milestone of 20K.  It has just 3 days to do so in 2016.  The major indices have gone sideways for 3 weeks now at these all-time highs, while individual sectors have rotated fiercely.  Yesterday, both Tech and Health Care were strong, a theme largely absent since the election.  That’s bullish.

Newsflow has been quiet in the US around the holidays, but there continue to be developments overseas.  China has been managing its economy to try to produce sustainable growth.   Turkey and Russia have agreed to a ceasefire in Aleppo.  President Obama is preparing to launch sanctions against Russia for attempting to influence our Presidential election. There is some movement on Brexit with companies already shifting presence away from London.  It is still unclear where things are headed with the UK and the EU, but every indication suggests Article 50 will be invoked in 2017.  Uncertainty is never a good thing.

Oil is at the highs of the year, touching $54 this morning.  It was $26 in January.  The Dollar continues to strengthen, pressing the Euro currency to the lows on the year, and lows not seen in over 10.  It’s trading at $1.03 this am.

Have a great day,
Mike

 

 

Mike’s Morning Brief – December 21, 2016

Mike's Morning Brief

Mikes morning brief

Market opened in the red after coming 13 points away from the big round number of DOW 20K. It's never been there before.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opened in the red after coming 13 points away from the big round number of DOW 20K.  It’s never been there before.  Nike reported a solid beat yesterday, which is giving both the DOW and S&P a lift.  But FedEx’s increased spending is providing a drag.  The U.S. Stock Market has added $1.6 Trillion in Market Cap just since the election.   Expectations for looser regulation, tax cuts and infrastructure spending are a big driver which would kickstart the economy. The Dow first hit 10,000 in 1999. It fell below it again in 2008 and then charged back higher in 2009, after the crisis, and hasn’t looked back.  Interest rates and the Dollar are taking a breather after huge moves of late.  The 10-Year seems to be hanging out at the new 2.5% level.  It spent most of the year around 1.8%.  Crude is holding in above $50.  Weekly inventories are reported this morning, which will move pricing.  Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere.

Have a great day,

Mike

 

 

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