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Quarterly Report
Fall 2008 |
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Table of Contents:
Looking Back: Surviving Land Mines By Eric Chang CFA
Looking Forward: Feds to the Rescue!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? By Mike Frazier
Looking Into: Bail-Out Bill to Ballot Box By Jude Bedell |
Looking Back: Surviving Land Mines
By Eric Chang CFA
3Q2008 is one for the books … and good riddance!
In 2007, the housing bubble burst, leaving our credit markets
in disarray. This calamity trickled down to the stock
market. On September 29th, the House of Representatives
shocked the world by voting down the rescue plan for ailing
banks and failing mortgages. This caused markets to
implode. The Dow lost 7% of its value on Monday which
seems excessive until compared to the infamous Black
Monday in 1987 when the Dow lost 22% of its value.
Gone are the stately old investment banks. And the megamortgage
brokers. And the insurance behemoths. And
the financial services companies with one-stop shopping.
Gone is the Merrill bull and WooHoo free WaMu
checking. Merrill is now a part of Bank of America while
WaMu is the poor cousin of Mr. J.P. Morgan.
This year, the U.S. government seized control of mortgage
lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the tune of
$200 billion; spent $29 billion on the Bear Stearns failure;
then lent $85 billion to former insurance titan AIG.
Now, of course, our government is embarking on a $700
billion bailout package that would absorb the troubled assets
from many financial companies’ balance sheets.
The U.S. financial crisis begat a global slowdown, sending
international markets lower. The price of crude oil
collapsed from July highs of $147 to $90, only to close
out the quarter at $100 per barrel. The key positive of
lower oil prices is Americans will pay less at the pump.
Interest rates were the real story of 2008; the stock market
merely a side show. The swing of interest rates was
caused by fear, Federal Reserve intervention, disruption
in business lending and slowing demand for loans due
to the debt on the balance sheets of the federal and state
governments as well as the average American taxpayer.
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Looking Forward: Feds to the Rescue!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
By Mike Frazier
Our investment strategy heading into 2009:
• Stay global
• Stay focused on investment plan goals
• Concentrate on high-quality Bonds.
• Diversify with Gold
• Stay disciplined by adding to core investments that
are getting trounced for no fundamental reasons
• Take advantage of tax laws
• Think TECH, ENERGY, HEALTH CARE and anything
GREEN.
It’s safe to assume the U.S. economy should remain sluggish
going into 2009. The current financial crisis should
technically push us over the economic line into negative
GDP territory, i.e., into recession. Some will say that
Washington will unseat New York as the financial capital
of the world, much to the distaste of free market capitalists.
We disagree. Washington is simply not equipped to
do what we do every day: gather information carefully
from reliable sources; analyze data professionally and
meticulously; make investment changes decisively; focus
on making money from our work. |
The U.S. Dollar strengthened
in the Spring but
began weakening in the
Summer months as our
government began its series
of bailout programs.
We already owe $10
trillion of Federal debt so
more is not great. A weaker greenback usually benefits
the large U.S. companies with a broad global revenue
stream like Coca Cola and Johnson & Johnson. Crude oil prices will likely turn higher, as seasonal demand picks
up and OPEC micro-manages the flow of oil to protect
the value of the commodity while the Dollar shrinks. Traditional
energy stocks should behave well in this environment,
and we will maintain an overweight position. |
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Alternative
energy continues
to be a major
investment theme
for us. The U.S.
has abundant
natural gas
reserves which
can be used for
so many things. Natural gas is 50% cleaner than crude.
Solar, wind and nuclear continue to gain traction and will
become part of the solution. Technology can help and is
already making some oil and gas extraction more effective
and more profitable. These growing Energy Technology
industries – or ET as Boone Pickens likes to call
them – should be a source of new job creation. Unparalleled
American ingenuity has responded time and again
to need. Alternative energy is a growth industry in its
infancy and we are investing in it. |
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We see another bull market for gold in this environment.
At a time where investor confidence has been shaken, gold’s attractiveness as a universal currency is peerless.
People will flock to the precious metal for safety, as a
better alternative to money in the mattress. With a weaker
dollar, yet notable inflation
overseas, the price of gold
is expected to climb. But
since Treasuries are now
too expensive to fill the
void, gold is a sound market
hedge with substantial
growth opportunities. |
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We continue to favor healthcare in this market environment.
Healthcare is not very economically sensitive and
stands to benefit from an aging population on a global
basis. We focus on companies with a global presence and
a diversified product line. Healthcare reform is another
hot topic in this election. In an effort to reduce costs,
generic drugs have to be part of the solution. We feel that
our portfolios are somewhat insulated from political risk
and if anything, stand to benefit from new leadership in
the White House. |
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Technology stocks are not immune
to global economic slowdown
or slowing consumer
spending. This has created buying
opportunities since innovation
and new product launches
are the name of the game. For
example, next generation smart
phones are coming to the market
with faster speeds and new applications at lower price
points. Plus, corporate belt tightening forces companies
to enhance productivity and operate more efficiently. To
cut costs without falling behind, tech spending will stay
on most budgets and remain a centerpiece of our stock
portfolios.
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With crude well off its peak
high of $147 per barrel and
commodities trading lower
across the board, the Federal
Reserve Bank will have
ammunition to cut interest
rates further in order to
revitalize the U.S. economy.
We anticipate rate cuts before year end, which should be
a shot of adrenaline for stocks and a further boost for our
quality Municipal Bonds. Markets will re-liquefy which
will revitalize the credit and bond markets and once and
for all, our system can work smoothly again. |
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The 2008 markets have damaged
investment capital and investor
psyche. There is over $3 trillion
in money market funds sitting on
the sidelines right now, waiting
to be deployed. Stocks and bonds
are the likely beneficiaries of that
money, which could trigger a recovery
rally to close out the year.
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Looking Into: Bail-Out Bill to Ballot Box
By Jude Bedell |
Congress was trying to pass a bank bail-out bill but politics mucked-up the works. Democrats want it done ASAP. Republicans want it their way. Neither is willing to do it alone. So, what’s new? EVERY one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives is up for re-election on November 4th … and every seat in the House will turn over if our esteemed politicians don’t get the lead out. |
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According to today’s numbers, Congress has the lowest approval rating in history with over 80% of Americans disapproving. (President Bush isn’t much better with a staggering 70% disapproval rating, the highest in history.)
Every day the government delays, we lose another bank. Washington Mutual went down on Friday. Wachovia evaporated Monday. Over the weekend, three European banks vaporized as our financial pain is exported abroad.
When the housing bubble burst in 2007, our credit markets were critically wounded. In response to the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. Treasury Department in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Bank has devised a plan to extinguish the financial blaze. This plan is far from perfect and even farther from being a long-reaching solution to our nation’s housing crisis. It’ll be worse when both houses of Congress edit it. |
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It’s a quick fix but fails to fix the genesis of the problem. In fact, politicians cannot even agree on the cause of the calamity much less a cure. Some blame failed government regulation. Others point to the greedy Wall Street Robber Barons for milking the mortgage system for every last dime. But the fact is that the 20% of homeowners in mortgage trouble don’t much care who is to blame: they just want a solution. 80% of home mortgages are being paid on time every month yet these folks also want a solution because they are watching their nest-egg go down the tubes. Every month their largest single asset goes down, down, down in value. This precludes homeowners from future borrowing via Equity Lines or refinances not to mention the destruction to their Net Worth.
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There is no right answer, but there are plenty of righteous ones. First, Congress needs to acknowledge of the extent of the current mortgage crisis which is pushing our American banking system to the brink of disaster. Really! That’s how bad it feels from where we are sitting, right in the middle of the capital market paralysis. Without a fix, we will be forced to stand by and watch one bank after another become insolvent. Why let this happen if it can be avoided? To teach the “bad guys” a lesson a la financial tough love? Not a good enough reason to ruin thousands of lives, lose thousands of jobs and bankrupt thousands of small businesses … which are already one paycheck away from oblivion. |
A huge stumbling block to fixing the mortgage problem is the attitude of many Americans who look upon a bail-out bill as simply another get-rich scheme for Wall Street. This public skepticism concerning any government intervention has been passed on to Washington making everyone scared to take sides. Hence, nothing gets done. When The House unexpectedly rejected the administration’s rescue plan, investment markets around the world plummeted. In a single day that will go down in history, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 7% of its value. This was one of the biggest percentage sell-offs since Black Monday in 1987 when the Dow lost 22% of its value. Having lived through both, 1987 felt worse, much worse, if that is any consolation. |
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Inside the bond pits, for the past fortnight, normal transactions seized-up awaiting resolution of government intervention. Traders feared unsettled trades and banks stopped lending to each other. Business is not getting done as usual. This is why we are anxious for the Congress to move quickly to empower the U.S. Treasury to BUY ASSETS, INVEST in MORTGAGES and RESTORE LIQUIDITY. It’s not a hand-out; it’s an investment in the purest sense, albeit an investment in troubled mortgages.
Many Americans are naïve when it comes to government intervention. They mold it together as if all intervention is alike: It’s OK to intervene to stop an airline strike but it is NOT OK to intervene to stop a run on the bank. Who decides GOOD versus BAD intervention? So far, it’s the politicians, but soon it may be the voters. Congress’ handling of this vital financial crunch has been sophomoric, ill-timed, inadequate, immature, unacceptable and at times embarrassing. Whew! You get the point.
- This is what the Congressional Bank Bail-out Bill should cover: Authorize brand new powers to the Treasury Department to BUY up to $700 Billion in non-performing mortgage assets in order to clean-up bank balance sheets allowing them to recommence normal lending operations
- Parcel out the $700 billion in 3 traunches (instead of all at once) to buy and invest in mortgages currently held by banks.
- Allow the Treasury to hire asset managers to direct the purchase of mortgage-backed securities and mortgages backed by residential properties. Bond guru Bill Gross has already volunteered to work for nothing to get this done.
- INVEST in MORTGAGES by negotiating investment “warrants” and/or take majority equity stake so the taxpayers may be paid-back when the assets become profitable
- Deny golden parachutes to executives of any company selling assets to the Treasury
- Require the SEC to study how to mark the troubled assets to REAL market values then report back to the Congress with recommendations in 90 days. Forcing troubled banks to mark DOWN their assets could only result in more failures so we expect this reform will be in the future.
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LIBOR Interest Rate Spikes
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As you can see on the chart above, LIBOR* overnight
interest rates went into orbit towards the end of September,
running up from 2% to almost 7%. That’s a 250%
rise. This unprecedented spike reflects GLOBAL concern
over America’s bank crisis. It also caused floating-rate
preferred stocks to rise dramatically too. *London Interbank
Offered Rate.
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U.S. Treasury Bill 3Q 2008
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The 3-month Treasury chart above indicates that prices
spiked so astronomically high that yields fell to less than
1%, meaning investors were paid under 1% yield for
holding the security. This anomaly depicts an irrational
flight to safety created from fear surrounding the bank
credit crunch in the U.S. |
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2008 Archive
Summer 2008 Newsletter
Winter 2008 Newsletter
Spring 2008 Newsletter
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